Tuesday, March 18, 2008

Will We Win Heller?

I think we will. I think we can count on Thomas, Roberts, Alito, Scalia (as long as he doesn't have a raging fear of guns like he does homosexuals). That's 4 of 9. I really like Justice Thomas and would be shocked if he doesn't come down in favor of Heller. I suppose Alito could go either way, and I admit I don't know much about him, but I have a feeling he'll side with the other 3 justices I mentioned. Justice Kennedy seems to be a avid supporter of privacy rights, particularly within ones own home. DC's law is such a brazen privacy intrusion that I think the privacy aspect alone will push him to side with Heller. Kennedy makes it 5-4 in favor of Heller.

All bets are off with Souter, Breyer, Ginsburg & Stevens. I don't usually agree with the opinions of these four, but I'm fairly confident that at least one can be swayed on the strength of Heller's argument alone. (or because of the weakness of DC's position.... I don't think they'll buy the District's "public safety" argument)

Add one from the list of Souter, Breyer, Ginsberg & Steven's and you've got a 6-3 decision in our favor. If we get Kennedy I predict one of these 4 will side with the majority. (Kennedy is generally the "swing" vote)

Yes, I know this court gave us Kelo, but although I don't agree with that decision I can understand their reasoning.

No comments: